Flight Status Dashboard

KL 861
Last updated: Jan 5, 2026 - 14:00 CET
⚠️
WINTER DISRUPTION ALERT
🚨
CRITICAL: Schiphol facing severe winter disruption (Day 4) 65% cancellation risk for KL861 on Jan 7. KLM likely to issue proactive cancel notice Jan 6 8am–2pm CET. Monitor app hourly.

📊 Probability Assessment

Cancelled
65%
60–75%
Delayed 3–8hrs
25%
20–30%
On-Time
10%
5–15%

✈️ Flight Details

Flight # KL 861
Aircraft B787-10 (PH-BHA)
Route AMS → NRT
Distance 9,410 km
Scheduled Dep. 13:45 CET
Scheduled Arr. 08:30 +1 JST
Duration 11h 45m
Date Jan 7, 2026

🌤️ Weather Forecast

Amsterdam (Jan 7)
2°C / 4°C
Light snow ❄️
Precip. Chance
65%
1.48" forecast
Tokyo (Jan 8)
9°C / 5°C
Patchy rain 🌧️
Wind Speed
7 mph
Manageable
⚠️ Worse than Jan 6: Fresh snow triggers new de-icing cycles. Wet runways compound delays.

⚠️ Critical Risk Factors

CRITICAL Backlog Crisis

1,120+ flights cancelled since Jan 2
• Crew & planes massively out of position
• Cascading duty violations ahead

CRITICAL De-icing Bottleneck

Queue times: 3–6 hours
• Aircraft piling up on aprons
• Operational collapse likely

CRITICAL Runway Capacity

Down to 25% normal (4 runways → 2–3)
• Severe throughput reduction
• Long-hauls axed first

HIGH Long-haul Priority

AMS–NRT flagged for preemptive cancel
• Less profitable in crisis mode
• Your flight likely axed by 8am Jan 6

📅 Timeline & Events

Jan 6
8am–2pm
EXPECT NOTICE
KLM issues proactive cancellation notice (24hrs ahead)
Jan 7
5am
IF STILL ON
Arrive at Schiphol 5+ hours early
Jan 7
6am–12pm
PEAK OPS
De-icing madness; 1.5–2hrs per aircraft
Jan 7
~4pm+
LIKELY DELAY
3–8 hour delay if somehow flying
Realistic
REBOOKING
KL863 Jan 8 (13:00) → Land NRT Jan 9

✅ Your Action Plan

  • 🔔 Monitor hourly KLM app starting Jan 6 (tomorrow)
  • 📱 Enable notifications for flight status changes immediately
  • 🎫 If cancel notice: Rebook instantly to KL863 Jan 8 (13:00)
  • 🏨 Book backup accommodation for Jan 8 night (you'll likely need it)
  • ⏰ If somehow flying: Leave for airport 5+ hours early
  • 📞 Keep JAL contact handy as rebooking fallback
  • ✋ Pack patience: 3–8 hour tarmac time if you somehow launch

📊 Realistic Scenarios

MOST LIKELY (65%)
KL861 CANCELLED by Jan 6, 8am CET
→ Rebook to KL863 (Jan 8, 13:00)
→ Land NRT Jan 9 morning
→ Lose 1 day; Japan waits ☹️
SECOND BEST (25%)
DELAYED 4–8 HOURS
→ De-ice queues + crew chaos
→ Board very late, arrive NRT early Jan 8
→ Lose half day; manageable 😐
MIRACLE (10%)
ON-TIME DEPARTURE
→ Schiphol at max chaos for 4th day
→ Weather worse Jan 7 than Jan 6
→ Don't count on it 🎲

💡 Bottom Line

Most likely outcome: KL861 gets CANCELLED by Jan 6, 8am CET. You'll rebook to KL863 (Jan 8 13:00) and land at Narita Jan 9 morning. You lose 1 day, but Japan waits.

If miraculously operating: Expect 3–8 hour minimum delay. De-ice queues + crew chaos = late board, early Jan 8 arrival at NRT.

Do NOT expect on-time (5–15% odds = don't count on it). Schiphol historically sucks at snow recovery. Once in crisis mode, it's 5–7 days minimum to stabilize.